The VUCA concept as a way of expressing volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity
We are living in a time of profound instability and crisis, a transition to a digitally driven society shaped by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which calls for a reset of civilization—a process that requires the pursuit of innovative approaches to its implementation.
Modern civilization, facing a global and paradigmatic crisis, requires a reset of its foundational worldview, as it is beset by global challenges and is thus experiencing a crisis of the fundamental principles and values underpinning the entire world order. Since humanity and nature were pitted against one another, nature became extensively integrated into market relations, which gave rise to a new dependence on it and deepened the contradictions within the “humanity-nature-society-technology,” which has led to a loss of control over technology and to instability.
The COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be a trigger that causes post-traumatic stress disorder in people, resulting from psychological trauma and severe negative developments—political, economic, educational, and personal— resulting in an era of turbulence. Global challenges have emerged due to the deep interconnectedness of humanity, which has united in the face of common survival issues on a global scale—a development that has demonstrated that humanity, while united, though unprepared for the challenges that civilization brings. Despite the emergence of a global human community, it is not ready to face the challenges of the modern world, as there are no effective methods or mechanisms for managing global problems; therefore, everyone will have to live in a VUCA world, which has emerged from a state of equilibrium and transformed into a state of disequilibrium.
However, due to systemic crises, humanity will be forced to embrace systemic innovations. The VUCA concept, born out of the crisis of modern society, has led to a “risk society” as a consequence of modern civilization. The VUCA concept is associated with societal instability and is derived from the acronym for the following English words: 1) volatility; 2) uncertainty; 3) complexity; 4) ambiguity, in which challenges are difficult to predict. The VUCA concept is a concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, known as “lifelong learning.” And to survive in today’s world, one must be dynamic, capable of adapting quickly, and adjusting to the demands of this world.
The modern concept of VUCA in conditions of instability is based on the theory of complex systems, which is founded on the AGILE methodology and AGILE philosophy—also known as agile methodology and agile philosophy (agile software development; agile – proven, flexible), which represent a methodology of complexity applied to the analysis of complex systems in the world of digital development.
The VUCA concept encompasses a range of methods, techniques, and generalizations of various approaches to software development—a set of values based on the principles set forth in the widely accepted “Agile Software Development Manifesto”— and are capable of analyzing the complexity of systems, their purpose, and the need to identify their functions, place, and role in modern society. These principles, methods, and approaches can lead to changes at all stages of refining specific action algorithms and agile management tools in the context of process management, where the Agile methodology serves as a system of new values.
The AGILE methodology applies to many areas of activity, including the digital paradigm of the economy and management, such as Scrum — the “structure” approach and Kanban, the “balance” approach—which are used in an organization’s innovation activities to facilitate the creation of innovative products, increase the share of digital products and services, and foster new forms of business based on digital technologies (the digital economy).
Methods of synergetic analysis include the theory of self-organizing open systems that find themselves at points of non-equilibrium, uncertainty, bifurcation (splitting), information stochasticity (insufficient information), and system drift, resulting in a shift in priorities. General scientific methods—analysis and synthesis, conceptualization, abstraction; the law of the unity and struggle of opposites, since without struggle, there is no development. To analyze the VUCA concept, the SySt methodology (systemic structural constellation) was used as a methodology for the process of developing awareness and change toward stability.
At the heart of this complexity lies the restructuring of the system at the structural and functional levels with the aim of preventing or mitigating crises and instability, increasing the number of innovations, their adoption, and technology transfer as a tool for implementing innovation, reforming the management system using the AGILE methodology, reshaping people’s mindsets, and developing a new system of values.
1. Volatility (instability, fluctuation, uncertainty), which is characterized by a situation that changes rapidly and unpredictably, making it impossible to foresee future developments or plan one’s actions. A state of instability refers to a system characterized by unstable situations and unpredictable changes in terms of speed, nature, scale, and dynamics in unstable markets; many factors in rapidly changing circumstances influence decision-making, making it very difficult to predict outcomes, as the world has become globalized and everything is changing very quickly. For every problem, one must find a strong solution and be able to survive in this creative chaos. However, a systematic strategic approach can lead to stability, but this requires flexibility, a high level of self-awareness and self-esteem, a clear mind, and an understanding of one’s own constructions and deconstructions.
- Uncertainty (unpredictability, rapid change, and significant fluctuations), which is driven by disruptive changes that make it difficult to predict the future. Uncertainty refers to the lack of information needed to forecast consequences and plan necessary actions in the context of COVID-19. The Global Uncertainty Index (GUI) has been introduced; it is linked to the situation of instability and macroeconomic indicators based on the volatility of key financial and economic variables, the stock market, risks, lower GDP growth, and economic and political instability, covering 143 countries worldwide with a population of nearly 2 billion people
- Complexity (complexity, confusion, a large number of problems) leads to a situation where a combination of facts, causes, and factors that are difficult to understand contributes to the emergence of an ever-increasing number of problems and contradictions, leading to the collapse of complex systems. Complexity, which results in a constellation of facts, causes, and factors that are difficult to understand, contributes to the emergence of an ever-increasing number of problems.
Complex systems are systems composed of a vast variety of components capable of generating new qualities, which manifest themselves in the spontaneous formation of temporal, spatial, and functional structures. Complex systems encompass self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, turbulence theory, synergetics, dynamic systems, instabilities, and stochastic processes. These are the problems of the irreducible complexity of human civilization. Currently, China is demonstrating stable governance. Other countries are moving toward a supranational level and seeking their own niches; there, the world is being reshaped (deglobalization or “slow globalization”—a slowdown) amid instability, uncertainty, turbulence, chaos, and risks; so leaders must master the full scope of information and cutting-edge creative technologies to survive the coronavirus pandemic, which requires overcoming information entropy (a measure of uncertainty, chaos, and disorder).
- Ambiguity (ambivalence, vagueness, uncertainty, doubt, duality), which makes it difficult to answer the questions “who, what, when, and why”—this is our reality, since nothing is stable. Humanity must acknowledge the changes it can control, and for now, this is defined by the lack of a clear understanding of the rules of the game, the need to adapt to everything that is happening, and to develop creativity, communication, and critical thinking, since it is difficult to answer the questions “who, what, when, and why.” Perhaps before the pandemic, people did not pay attention and did not see the threat to economic balance, which led to the chaos that ensued as a result of rapid, unpredictable changes that had been accumulating for many years due to crises, chaos, and the unpredictability of events.
Instability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity—a state of threat, the absence of changes in government, the absence of changes in the constitutional order and the rules of the game (S. Huntington), the absence of structural and structured changes (D. Siaring), and the lack of a balance of political forces (J. Lively)—all of which affect the state of small and medium-sized businesses and the stability of organizations.
The modern VUCA concept reflects these changes, and success goes to those who are adaptable, flexible, ready for change, and use creative approaches, as a paradigm shift has occurred and the world has changed. A crisis is a crucial time for change and for reshaping the world using new strategies and new ways of thinking, since old methods cannot solve new problems. The conditions of the digital economy have come to be defined as a disruptive environment if we fail to adapt. We need to seek out breakthrough tools through digital technological innovations; living in chaos means being flexible and able to survive amid the fluidity and complexity of life.
How to survive in a state of uncertainty, when today’s world is characterized by a high degree of volatility and the emergence of an ever-increasing number of complex problems and situations: treat change as a normal phenomenon, since new conditions present new opportunities; develop a flexible model of managerial thinking; be adaptable to rapid changes and able to solve unpredictable problems; leverage your organization’s competitive advantages.
Humanity wants to live in a stable world, and the opposite of the VUCA concept is the SPOD concept, where S stands for “steady.” P (predictable); O (ordinary); D (definite). This instability in civilization has resulted from the fact that we have reached planetary limits and have almost exceeded them, to the point where civilization is no longer capable of providing the entire population with all the benefits of civilization—food, clean water, and clean air.
Today, as a result of the devastating impact of industrial enterprises on the environment, global evolutionary changes are taking place because everything has changed—the climate, the acceleration of the greenhouse effect, changes in biodiversity, ocean acidification, and the loss of a stable equilibrium. Therefore, we must transition to:
– From the planet's destruction to its regeneration—without collapse, without global wars:
– to strengthen boundary stability, which requires passing through the “bifurcation point” of the 21st century, recognizing the scale of the crisis, the need to restructure consciousness based on the principles of the noosphere and reason, the formation of society as collective cooperation, and the formation of a new Anthropocene as the anthropological foundation of humanity;
– to embark on post-crisis development, which requires finding that transition point (turning point, inflection point) that will lead us back to a stable world free of catastrophes, but to do so, we must pass through this bifurcation point;
– A reboot of civilization is needed through the search for an evolutionary attractor, the restructuring of consciousness and culture, and new approaches to the interaction between humans and nature:
– developing noospheric thinking to break through into a new future—“humanity-technosphere-biosphere”:
– We need cooperation based on universal human values as a new way of living and thinking in order to learn how to survive in a VUCA world;
– transition from sustainable development to regenerative development and a regenerative economy, and live within the framework of nature-centered development;
– to shape an eco-regenerative future as a polyphonic vision of the future, using agroecological solutions;
– to foster an organic, ecosystem-based way of thinking and a new ethical value system.
As a result of these actions, a nonlinear future will take shape—one that must find answers to global evolutionary crises, in which new patterns of behavior will be discovered, a new congruence with complexity, and a transition toward a congruently responsible restoration of human subjectivity—as humans must become agents in shaping their own future. To achieve this, a new educational system is also necessary to train the appropriate specialists.